Australia or Bust

July 26, 2019

Was reading this evenings article titled: “Australia to set up antitrust office to police Facebook, Google” and was inspired.

The article outlines Australia’s plan to match a new regulator with the skill, expertise and experience to understand the strategy and power behind large tech media companies.

This is an intelligent and powerful shift in the global power dynamic for large cap technology firms. The word will be watching the progress of this effort.

And Australia may become the first advanced nation to change the power dynamic between the captains of Silicon Valley (the new robber Barrons) and the people.

What also struck a chord was having just learned how the Australian electorate and election process work. Understanding that process gives this announcement far more weight.

This is because Australia has one of the strongest and most moderate-biased election process in the world. (Not that I’ve really measured). The power of this announcement is that it represents a shift in policy against large cap technology firms from the most moderate-centrist thinkers in the country. It’s an example of what can happen if we-the-people take back our electorates and media.

The two major differences between the Australian and American election processes are: 1. Australia has mandatory voting policies. Everyone of legal age must register, and everyone must attend a poll to vote; 2. The Australian voting system requires an absolute majority of 51% of all voters; 3. The voting systems is ranked, meaning it’s not binary or absolute. Meaning you choose your top 1, 2, 3, 4….. candidates in ranked order. Then the votes for each are then tallied by-count, by-rank.

The lowest scoring candidate (J. Doe) gets removed and the ballots cast for him are re-evaluated for their #2 entry. Those second ranked votes get redistributed across the remaining candidates. From there the next lowest scoring gets removed and the process repeats, which ensures the winner has a majority; but this also ensures that the candidates, who are arguably the most informed voters, have a substantial weight in the outcome of the election.

And lastly, maybe most importantly, since people generally only have one preference (left leaning, right leaning or center), then the fringe votes ultimately become drowned out by the center. And elections result in far more moderate candidates winning. This would have the result of limiting the powers of special interests, fringe concepts and populist ideals.

If such an effort to match the skills and experience of large technology firms with able-bodied regulators is the result of a hyper-moderate democracy then the world may simply be at the forefront of Digital World 2.0, the dawn of which may become known as the people’s Digital Revolution.

If we are at the precipice of the digital revolution, then the future will be far brighter than the present.


We Need A Three Party System

August 14, 2018

The problem with our two party system is that electoral victories continue to be made by small margins, which increases the efficacy of dirty tricks, gerrymandering, and as we now know makes our democracy more vulnerable to outside forces and manipulation. A properly polarized electorate divides the balance of power such that small margins are able to amplify outcomes. Hence, it doesn’t take much to swing an election one way or another if you only need to turn 1-2% of the participating vote. Add well orchestrated propaganda and some accelerant – like targeted psychographics and social media – and voilà, all of a sudden there is room for a puppet-master to rule over the democratic process.

The process of polarization is self-fulfilling and self-reinforcing. As the right marches right, the left counters by marching further left. Republicans once met by democrats became tea parties met by progressives. Today we have a harder and grittier right under Trump being met by rabid liberals like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. There is even more recent name calling between “cucservatives” and the “libtards”.

It’s gotten so bad that political forces no longer need to sell the electorate on why-him, they only have to sell us on why not-her. In fact we saw in 2016 the power of not-her was far more powerful and persuasive than why-him. Unselling the opponent became the winning political strategy. If for no other reason than it was new, novel and for lack of a better word, it was catchy: “Lock her up”. I’m a tight race the compelling argument degrades from what I can do for your country into imagine what she might do to your country.

Democracy was intended to be of the people, by the people and for the people. However the further we polarize our politics the more we end up empowering and serving special interests, on both sides of the aisle. In partisan politics each political force is met with an equal and opposite opposing force. Each time the pendulum swings, it swings harder and farther in the other direction. This process is a bit like forcing team selection for a dodgeball game. By the end of the process half of the kids are on one side and the other half are on the other. The middle is empty as people are forced into believing that they must take sides. Your either with us/them or against us/them.

This creates the conditions for a fragile democracy and easy swing-able elections.

Today more than ever the country is ripe for a strong centrist leader. However Democrats have responded to Trump by pushing hard on the progressive agenda. And therefore the true independent swing voters are forced to stay on their current side despite possible waning affection for their incumbent leader. If a centrist Democrat appeared today he might be scorned by the “libtards” as not toothy enough to stand up to the Trump right, but if he won the backing of the party, such a candidate would have a better shot at picking off newly minted Right leaning non-believers. The problem is the party is not going to be able to get out of its own way.

It’s for this reason we need a strong third and independent party in the offering. Imagine the 2016 presidential election outcome with a strong third party candidate. Someone who only needed to obtain 34% of the vote. In a tight three party race, manipulation is less effective, as there is less control of a specific outcome when there are three possible outcomes, and the cost of resources are brought to bear. When the odds of winning drop from 50% to 33% it’s harder to invest in manipulating those odds.

By the time voters were forced to choose between Hillary and Trump at the polls in 2016, there was reasonable room for some simply named “not him or her”. I’ve joked that Pee-Wee Herman could have won.

The best way to protect our democracy is to abandon the two party system. We need a strong third and independent party and the freedom for voters to make choices based on needs and wants, rather than fear of reproach which results from polarized two sides races. The longer it takes us to evolve to three parties the longer we risk long-term damage to our democracy.


The Red Pill: ZeroHedge, InfoWars and others are Russian Fronts 

April 16, 2017

I’ve been advocating this based on my own empirical evidence that came to surface during the 2016 election. 

If anyone spends more than a few minutes surfing ZeroHedge (InfoWars and others) they will find a litany of conspiracies, agitated gloom, and as of that last 18 months a lot of love (propaganda) for Russia.  

The purpose of ZeroHedge (around the time of the financial crisis) began as a way to reach the minds of Wall Street and to sew seeds of feer and doubt. It was all nearly veiled as an inside-scoop of the secrets that led to the financial crisis. The site rose to such popularity it has often been quoted in main-stream-media and has a list of well-heeled (unwitting) followers. 
That said, the reference in Warontherocks to ZeroHedge/InfoWars as grey matter in the information war from Russia is so on point, it’s a wonder no one has talked about it sooner or with more frequency. 

If you, like me, have used and liked ZeroHedge in the past, prepare to be heartbroken and nauseous.  However, the feelings of having been used will become constructive to your new awareness of the world, as it is today. 

I beg you to read this blog post. I know it lacks credibitly by virtue of brand, but check the authors, search your soul, and their references for the truth. 

The Rand Corporation has also well documented the Russian Info Operation Model. But they leave a lot to the imagination where Warontherocks fills in. 

Trolling for Trump: How Russia Is Trying to Destroy Our Democracy

Since I felt it relevant, the Rand research is here:


https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

There may be nothing more patriaotic we can do as Americans than to begin to think critically about our news and information sources. In the long run we need to solve for getting Putin out of power, in the short run, we need to reclaim our democracy, red, blue and everyone in between. 

This is not a partisan issue and while it may involve #trumprussia, the implications are far deeper and more severe than possible malfeasance (impeachable malfeasance). 

When the majority of Americans (left and right) wake up to the fact that half of what they believe to be true is Putin’s programming the consequences will be dire, and far worse than a president impeached. This will ripple through congress, the senate, the intelligence community and military, and a large number of our elected officials will end up buried by this. The ensuing power vacuum in Washington, distrust and eventual paranoia, will castrate our leadership for a period of time.  
We should hope for and look for the technocrats who won’t be lifelong public servants but whom will have the credibility and willingness to restore order in Washington, and ultimately to keep us safe. They are out there and waiting for their time to shine. 


Wrecking Ball

April 15, 2017

Click here: Wrecking Ball


Single most missed story of the 2016 US Presidential Election

March 1, 2017

#robertmercer #cambridgeanalytica #facebook #bigdata #privacy #cybersecurity #deletefacebook

Robert Mercer: the big data billionaire waging war on mainstream media

Facebook says it can sway elections after all—for a price
Here’s How Facebook Actually Won Trump the Presidency
The Data That Turned the World Upside Down


#9thCircutCourt

February 7, 2017

I hope people realize the #misdirection in motion right now.  POTUS (Bannon) is using the #travelban as a test for blocking the system. 

The more legislation he can stuff down the court system the further he will be to “proving” the courts are failing (in this case at the expense of “national security”)

If the 9th Circut Court calls their bluff with a fast decision to keep the lower court ban in place it will help (but not end) this tragic waste of taxpayer resources. 

If anyone thinks this is anything other than the first of many uses of executive power to gun-up the courts, then they are naively mistaken. 

The short-con (passing questionable restrictions on immigration) is simply a cover for the long-con of dismantling our democracy. 

I pray to god our elected representatives on BOTH sides of the aisle can see this.  


Zerohedge is a Russian InfoOperation

November 25, 2016

After the financial crisis in 2008 I like many fellow finance professionals were hungry if not desperate for disparative news. Banks seldom paint dark clouds over their own heads and the MSM is too afraid to paint gloom, or its too unsophisticated to understand what’s really happening.  

At that time I found myself practically glued to Zerohedge for my daily fill of “reality” and a never ending and often thought provoking insight into what was “really” happening on Wall Street and the world at large.  After all with their catchy tag line and Fight Club overtones, it felt cool to be counter Wall Street culture at the trough of the crisis if nothing else. That, and of course people flrequently referenced a breaking view posted on Zerohedge. 

Well, as all good crises end, so does the need for solace and insight. By 2013 I found I rarely if ever checked in on Zerohedge if for no other reason all the doom and gloom stopped being accurate. Markets were running up, and the world barring geopolitical issues seemed to be sobering.  My detachment at first was more about the lack of timely or relevant information.  

Then early this year a Bloomberg article caught my eye. One of the core team at Zerohedge had left, and broken the secrecy and silence that had protected the site from truth seekers and controversy.  

After reading about the Zerohedge team, and commitment more to sensationalizing events, and stirring the proverbial pot rather than actually trying to give people real insight, I felt like the patsy. I realized my own views years ago had been clouded as I overweighted the integrity of the “insights” I was getting. 

I began to follow Zerohedge again this spring, but with a far more cautious and distrustful approach. With doubts already in mind, I began to feel like Zerohedge was working extra hard to push for Trump, and to damage Clinton. The more I read the more it was clear there was an agenda. 

Sometime over the summer my inspired searches led me to be convinced that Zerohedge was likely part of a Russian Information operation, and even more likely has been since its inception. I’m a finance geek, so I don’t know what other industry gossip/insider blogs like Zerohedge there are, but the frank realization that foreign countries as working diligently to inflittate our markets and democracy is deeply unsettling.  


Democracy is on fire, and only half the population is sounding the alarm.

October 25, 2016

The alternate title to this article was “Antisocial Leadership: How a Psychopath Came to Lead the Sociopaths”  To be completely fair to vast numbers of ordinary, god-fearing Americans – who have a lifetime of good contributions to society – not all Trump supporters are sociopaths.  However, the point of this article to illustrate that: 1. Trump is a psychopath, and 2. that many in his army are aligned sociopaths, who have led a larger movement that has coopted (either through fear, intimidation or manipulation) unwitting and otherwise GOOD americans, the vast majority of whom, are GOOD people, but who have failed to break the glass and sound the alarm.

Furthermore, I must disclose that I am writing this on limited time, but I will cite all of my references, albeit in an unorthodox format, by color coding direct references, along with links to the original sources.  My time is unfortunately too limited for proper attribution, but I mean no harm to the original works, and only want to have their efforts read and distributed with their original intent.

First, lets clarify the similarities and differences between psychopaths and sociopaths. Key traits that sociopaths and psychopaths share include: 

  • A disregard for the rights of others
  • A failure to feel remorse or guilt
  • A disregard for laws and social mores
  • A tendency to display violent behavior

Sociopaths tend to be nervous and easily agitated. They are volatile and prone to emotional outbursts, including fits of rage. They are likely to be uneducated and live on the fringes of society, unable to hold down a steady job or stay in one place for very long. It is difficult but not impossible for sociopaths to form attachments with others. Many sociopaths are able to form an attachment to a particular individual or group, although they have no regard for society in general or its rules. In the eyes of others, sociopaths will appear to be very disturbed. Any crimes committed by a sociopath, including murder, will tend to be haphazard, disorganized and spontaneous rather than planned. (goo.gl/6w0Hj6)

My reference here explains the demographic, in particular, of the hate groups that have publicly supported Trump’s campaign (with acceptance by the campaign), to include the KKK, white supremacists, homophobic, anti-semitic, racist and other belligerent anti-social groups.  Consider the types of crowds and violence that has taken place at Trump rallies. Slate has a good list of the generally haphazard violence that has taken place: goo.gl/mbUkM4.  The Trump narrative that the Clinton campaign has incited this violence is either 1. a dangerously inept understanding of his own support base, or 2. a frigteningly overt attempt to manipulate the electorate into a frenzied of fear of the establishment, for his own power gain.

Psychopaths, on the other hand, are unable to form emotional attachments or feel real empathy  with others, although they often have disarming or even charming personalities. Psychopaths are very manipulative and can easily gain people’s trust. They learn to mimic emotions, despite their inability to actually feel them, and will appear normal to unsuspecting people. Psychopaths are often well educated and hold steady jobs. Some are so good at manipulation and mimicry that they have families and other long-term relationships without those around them ever suspecting their true nature. …  Intelligent psychopaths make excellent white-collar criminals and “con artists” due to their calm and charismatic natures. (goo.gl/6w0Hj6)

While we don’t have convictions of Trump’s personal criminal activity, we can look to the countless allegations of connections to illegal organizations and other criminals,and or if you choose to, the growing number of sexual assault allegations, including older ones buried from his first wife. The WSJ outlined ties to the mafia earlier this month: Donald Trump and the Mob: goo.gl/BfT9GZ.  It’s not much more than common sense that innocent people generally to systematically and willingly associate with known criminals. Countless successful organizations have a web of rules and policies to eliminate even the perception of association with criminals.

The cause of psychopathy is different than the cause of sociopathy (1). It is believed that psychopathy is the largely the result of “nature” (genetics) while sociopathy is more likely the result of “nurture” (environment). Psychopathy is related to a physiological defect that results in the underdevelopment of the part of the brain responsible for impulse controland emotions. Sociopathy, on the other hand, is more likely the product of childhoodtrauma and physical/emotional abuse. Because sociopathy appears to be learned rather than innate, sociopaths are capable of empathy in certain limited circumstances but not in others, and with a few individuals but not others. (goo.gl/6w0Hj6)

Trump’s upbringing and background is fuzzy at best. His father was alleged to have participated in KKK violence.  His brother died young, and was well noted as having been an alcoholic. Donald himself, is well cited as a person who avoids alcohol.  While its admirable that he was moved by his brothers premature death and lives a life of sobriety, its more likely that alcoholism runs in the family and he is simply being wise and disciplined to avoid it given his wealth and fear of losing it.  Given the wealth he grew up with, it would not be surprising to eventually learn of a number of “surprising” family secrets, but in the absence of more material information, its hard to argue that Donald grew up in a definitively abusive home, lending credence to nature over nurture.

Psychopathy is the most dangerous of all antisocial personality disorders because of the way psychopaths dissociate emotionally from their actions, regardless of how terrible those actions may be. (goo.gl/6w0Hj6)

Trump has a serial ability to dissociate emotionally from his words and actions. With the count of sexual assaults up to 11 women making allegations, and Trumps commanding response that the allegations are wholly untrue, it makes this point abundantly clear.  However there are countless other words and actions that we have been presented with over the last 18 months, to include how he stiffs contractors, how employees have been mistreated and exploited, how he refers to women and minorities in general, etc….

PSYCHOPATHS AREN’T ALWAYS VIOLENT…

In the entertainment industry, the word psychopath is pretty much synonymous with murderous madman. Just about all characters described as psychopaths in movies and television are serial killers — Hannibal Lecter from The Silence of the Lambs and Dexter Morgan from Dexter, for example. But in real life, psychopathic tendencies don’t necessarily mean a person is destined to lead a life of despicable crime.

The most important characteristics of a psychopath revolve not around violence, but around lack of empathy, selfishness, and manipulation. True, some psychopaths may use these traits to commit crimes, but others rely on their manipulative nature and ability to charm for other things. Many psychopaths actually find great success in the business world thanks to their ruthless nature — a disproportionate number of CEOs are actually psychopaths. Some other popular career paths for psychopaths include law, media, and being salespeople. (goo.gl/2s6R3F)

Well three out of four careers (CEO, media and sales) fit Donald’s success path.  The media angle is interesting given his most recent associations with Roger Ailes and Stephen Bannon and the well documented comments around his family’s interest in starting a media empire.

If we really want to diagnose Trump as a bona fide psychopath, however, we can simply look to Hare’s Psychopathy Checklist.

The Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) is a diagnostic tool used to rate a person’s psychopathic or antisocial tendencies.  It was developed in the 1970’s by Dr. Robert Hare, a Canadian professor and researcher renowned in criminal psychology, who has spent three decades studying the concept known as the psychopath and based partly on Hare’s work with prison inmates in Vancouver.

Because psychopaths are often repeat offenders who commit sexual assaults or other violent crimes again and again, the PCL-R is used in the courtroom and in institutions as an indicator of the potential risk posed by individuals in psychiatric units or prisoners. (goo.gl/Muxqle)

Let’s create our own score.  Feel free to change my answers.  Some of the definitions, if you need them can be found here (http://www.sociopathicstyle.com/psychopathic-traits/), as a couple require some interpretation.  General defense of my scores are below.

•  glib and superficial charm (2)  – This score should does need support outside of watching him speak for more than 60 seconds.
•  grandiose (exaggeratedly high) estimation of self (2) – This score should does need support outside of watching him speak for more than 60 seconds.
•  need for stimulation (2) – Maybe best represented by his addition to spurring twitter storms, and responding to them.
•  pathological lying (2) – All politicians lie.  Its part of the job. Sometimes its intentional, sometimes its not having full command of the facts.  I think the statistics from all three debates clearly sum up that nearly 3/4 of Trumps statements are bold faced lies, relative to Hillary who is “crooked” but comes out closer to 1/4 to 1/3.
•  cunning and manipulativeness (2) – Trump has a number of dubious strengths.  One of the largest, is his innate ability to command the discourse, but setting stages and redirecting dialogues using a combination of lies, misdirection, and when he’s successful, fear and intimidation.
•  lack of remorse or guilt (2) – Take any of his most offensive scripts.  In the worst of cases it took him days, if not weeks to feebly and half-hearted apologize, which always was followed with a counterpunch, never with remorse or any level of humanity that could be confused for guilt.
•  shallow affect (superficial emotional responsiveness) (2) – Have we seen him express genuine emotion, sadness, remorse, pain, empathy…for ANYONE on his campaign trail? He uses people as cases, there has not been an instance of purposeful reflection for any of the people he has claimed to want to help.
•  callousness and lack of empathy (2) – ibid see above.
•  parasitic lifestyle – I have a hard time scoring this, for lack of easily available evidence. That does not mean he should not score here.
•  poor behavioral controls (2) – Can I get a 3AM Twi-ter?
•  sexual promiscuity (2) – Achem, and we’re not scoring Bill on this one here.
•  early behavior problems (1) – You don’t go to military school for being a poster-child.  That said, I have no evidence of what kind of little shit Donald was before he turned 18, so I’m leaving this at a one.
•  lack of realistic long-term goals – Giving him the benefit of the doubt for the balls to run for president.  The multiple bankruptcies tells a different story that could easily bode for a one here.  He does not have a history of playing for the long-term.  Most business people don’t.  Short term profit, is not a long-term goal.
•  impulsivity (2) – Can I get a 3AM Twi-ter?
•  irresponsibility (2) – How can I count the ways?  Infidelity, enough proximity to sexual assault, failing to allow his campaign to uncover pitfalls in his background, stiffing contractors, damaging perceptions of women, minorities and the sanctity of our democracy with election rigging rhetoric.
•  failure to accept responsibility for own actions (2) – I’m getting tired of explaining myself.
•  many short-term marital relationships (2) – You don’t need a Ph.D. to score this one.
•  juvenile delinquency (1) – You don’t go to military school for being a poster-child.  That said, I have no evidence of what kind of little shit Donald was before he turned 18, so I’m leaving this at a one.
•  revocation of conditional release (1) – This one is harder to interpret for a guy whose not (yet) been to jail. The best we have are the moments he has gotten himself in political trouble via “carelessness, low deliberation, or failing to appear”.  It’s effectively the political analogy to someone on parole (trying to make a better life/ i.e. campaign) falling right back into the trouble that they tried to separate themselves from.
•  criminal versatility (1)  – It’s hard t give him a 2 in good conscience prior to his being convicted of a crime, but in fairness to my score, its not about being convicted, its just representative of a person who expresses diversity in his criminal tendencies (sexual assault, organized crime, violating of housing laws, racketeering, bribery, etc…) as well as the pride that comes along with getting away with them.  Suing your accusers for defamation strikes me as deserving at least a one.

Each of the twenty items is given a score of 0, 1, or 2 based on how well it applies to the subject being tested. A prototypical psychopath would receive a maximum score of 40, while someone with absolutely no psychopathic traits or tendencies would receive a score of zero. A score of 30 or above qualifies a person for a diagnosis of psychopathy. People with no criminal backgrounds normally score around 5. Many non-psychopathic criminal offenders score around 22. (goo.gl/Muxqle)

Scoring the publicly available first hand accounts of Donald’s behavior and history, I get to a 32. What score do you give him.  It’s hard for me to see ANYONE giving the guy less than a 20.

How did “We the People” get delivered a bona fide psychopath as the GOP presidential nominee?  More importantly, why haven’t the majority of republicans raised their arms, hammer in hand, to break the glass and sound the alarm.  Are we, as a nation, more concerned for partisan politics than we are for the best-interest of our democracy?  If so, then Trump has a point, and his rhetoric will continue to divide us.  I only pray that he doesn’t burn the other half of our great citizenry down with him.

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people.

-Martin Luther King, Jr.


Why Putin Want’s Trump to Win

October 9, 2016

Dear Trumpkins, picture this: Trump has won. The Mexican wall is under construction, trade deals are being dismantled, the debate on immigration runs long on what quota and screening measures are appropriate.

The house and likely the senate are in democratic hands, so despite campaign promises very little gets done except the ratings at C-SPAN surge.

Twitter and the NYT are are bought by a consortium led by the Trump kids as an anchor for the Trump media empire they will build while dad is in office as a gift for his service.

We read dozens of platitudes in the media exchanged between Trump and Putin, their shared admiration, and the peace they have brought to the world working together.

The White House gets a face lift in Trump style at taxpayer expense using long standing contractors in the Trump network.

Do you think along side this type of change anyone is really paying attention to Putin?

Meanwhile, Syria falls into Putin’s fold – along with his spoils in the Ukraine and Crimea – and he is emboldened. (Look at a map for a moment: http://bit.ly/2dWVC2L.) From Syria he makes covert inroads (InfoOps and special forces) into Iraq, building a front along Saudi Arabia. Iran is literally and figuratively behind him. Upon completion of securing the Saudi border, or possibly sometime before He then takes a stake in Lybia.

All along the way his info operations allow him to win enough local popular support that democratic processes fail to slow or stop him.

In a few years, he controls the Middle East, African Peninsula, and threatens or already has waged war on the west.

Maybe I’m crazy, or maybe there is a master plan. Doesn’t need to be exactly as I’ve laid it out, but the gist of it is the mass wave of protectionism will create a huge window for Russia to jump through as we are all occupied with our own unrest.  Their expansionist policy, can only come if no one is looking.  Much like our own bombing in Yemen went unnoticed today.

This is the US playbook, but now it’s being used against us. If we don’t wake up to it soon, we will lose a great deal more than what was once a noble election process.


Weaponized Information

October 1, 2016

This is a fascinating read: link below. Here is an excerpt:

“… in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea and the current destabilisation of Ukraine – that information can be used to disorganise governance, organise anti-government protests, delude adversaries, in uence public opinion, and reduce an opponent’s will to resist. Furthermore, it is critical that such activities begin prior to the onset of traditional military operations.”

Russian Information Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine