Fill in the blank: Bear Stearns is to Greece like Lehman is to _________
Now rumors of a Greek default this weekend. Might finally make sense now that the 1 year Greek government bond is yielding 95% and the two year is yielding 55%. Both are priced for about 100% chance of default.
I’d love to see the recovery estimates.
A Greek default will probably create a market yawn, as Bear Stearns ultimately did. There is no real news there anymore except how it is ultimately handled.
Anecdotally, the markets performed well from March of 2008 when Bear was “bailed out” until Lehman in September. If history repeats, it might be a Merry Christmas, but it’ll probably be a pretty rotten Easter.
When people around the world wake up and look under the covers, I think they are going to find that their leaders were also asleep at the wheel.
Someone needs to turn on the lights.
CNBC.com Article: Greece’s Race to Catch Up on Reforms Seems Doomed
Under mounting pressure from euro zone partners,Greece is scrambling to deliver on reforms and fiscal targets to avoid bankruptcy but its efforts seem doomed and snap elections are on the horizon.