Is the Market Pricing in an Obama Victory?

So I’m a little behind the times on a lot of stuff.  Being directed to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight election mega polling data site is one of those things I missed out on until today.

I thought I’d help get the word out to those people who may live in a bubble like me.  The chart below is from this afternoon (October 24, 2008), and can be revised as often as new data is available.  Nate has a number of resources on his site, among them a FAQ to help explain the jumble of charts, lists and spreadsheets of political polling data.

The way I interpret the Win Percentage chart below is the percentage chance that Obama will win the election by the spread of popular votes and electoral voted noted.  Pretty cool.

FiveThirtyEight.com

Having read his methods, an understanding the the credibility he has built, I wonder if the market is responding in any way to an Obama cabinet.  I suppose that assumes most people don’t live in the bubble I do.

Source:
Election Chart
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com, October 24, 2008 (2:50pm)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html

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